The United States' retreat from the Middle East and pivot to the Far East is likely to intensify

A combination of threat analysis and “subterranean forces” (such as proclivities to fight conventional wars as compared to asymmetric ones) leads the USA to prefer focusing on the threats from China rather than those emanating from the Middle East.     

弹道导弹突防措施分析

简要介绍了弹道导弹面临的典型防御系统。针对该防御系统,提出了弹道导弹所能采取的典型突防手段,并将弹道导弹突防措施分为反侦察类突防和反拦截类突防两部分,介绍了反侦察类突防中的电子干扰、诱饵、隐身、助推段策略以及反拦截类突防中的加强防御策略、导弹机动发射与飞行、多弹头策略等。为研究弹道导弹突防技术提供参考。     

South Africa's threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission

Abstract

The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry.     

The end of the “INF Treaty” and the US-China military balance

ABSTRACT

Whereas much of the debate about the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has focused on the European context and Russia’s alleged treaty violations, Asia looms large in the minds of proponents of the United States’s immediate withdrawal from the treaty. For many proponents, the fast-changing military balance in Asia and China's conventionally armed missiles constitute a sufficient cause for withdrawal. What does the end of the INF Treaty bode for the US-China military balance? This article argues that, although there are some near-term benefits for the US position in the conventional military balance with China, the advantages offered by prohibited missiles are minor and can be readily substituted by extant capabilities that are compliant with the treaty. Given the negative implications of the end of the INF Treaty for the future of arms control, the costs and benefits of withdrawing from the treaty require further examination; the military balance in Asia is an unpersuasive rationale for withdrawing from an important part of the arms-control architecture.     

ADVANCED US CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

The Obama administration has made a great effort to increase the role of advanced conventional weaponry in US national security thinking and practice, in part to help reinvigorate the global nuclear disarmament agenda by reducing the role played by nuclear weapons in the US defense posture. However, such a strategy is fundamentally flawed because increases in US conventional superiority will exacerbate US relative strength vis-à-vis other powers, and therefore make the prospect of a nuclear weapon-free world seem less attractive to Washington's current and potential nuclear rivals. Consequently, it is highly likely that the impact of efforts to increase US advanced conventional superiority through ballistic missile defense and a conventional “prompt global strike” program will ensure that the Obama administration is adopting a pathway to nuclear abolition on which it is the sole traveler for the foreseeable future.     

South Asia's Missile Expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, contrary to declarations that they are pursuing “minimum” deterrence, India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their missile forces. India has developed eleven types of missiles while Pakistan has fielded nine. These missile forces have a mixed impact on deterrence stability. Both states' medium-range missiles strengthen their countervalue deterrent capabilities against the other, though India's China-specific missiles still have limitations. India's and Pakistan's short-range missiles and first-generation naval systems raise concerns about nuclear ambiguity, command and control, and escalation across the nuclear threshold, ultimately undermining deterrence stability on the subcontinent.     

UNDER THE RADAR?

Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security, by Dennis M. Gormley. Praeger Security International, 2008. 272 pages, $54.95.     

弹道导弹基本诸元的快速装订算法研究

应用牛顿迭代法实现了弹道导弹基本诸元的快速装订。推导了根据落点偏差求飞行程序角和发射方位角的牛顿迭代公式，设计了迭代算法，并给出了实际算例。考虑到迭代算法收敛速度与所给的迭代初值有一定的关系，提出了预先准备简易射表采用反插值算法为牛顿迭代法准备初值的方法，经计算表明可以大大减少迭代次数，从而实现标准弹道的快速设计。     

陆基常规导弹武器系统射击效率评估

现行的陆基常规导弹武器射击效率的算法原理滞后于导弹作战实际需要.针对毁伤律问题、积累毁伤效应问题、相关性问题、目标毁伤的模糊性问题进行了探讨,指出应用当代新的数学理论方法改造现行陆基常规导弹射击效率算法理论的必要性和迫切性.     

地面防空兵应对干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹的侧击战术策略理论分析

根据当前地空导弹武器系统受干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹威胁导致其作战能力下降的作战实践,本文首先提出了一种可有效打击进犯之敌、保全自身的侧击战术;其次,对该侧击战术进行军事建模,分析了飞行器从开始转弯到照射制导雷达进入其攻击范围期间,飞行器速度、攻击角度范围、转弯时的坡度角及航线与雷达间的航路捷径等因素对飞行器转弯时间造成的影响,并结合防空作战过程、避开空中威胁相关因素,给出了照射制导雷达辐射时机的标准;最后提出了确保侧击战术成功运用应的意见建议,并根据其操作难度指出人工智能运用于军事领域的必要性。希冀本研究能够为地面防空兵应对干扰吊舱和反辐射导弹的侧击战术提供一定理论参考。